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LCD monitor market share battle to occur in Q4

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Total shipments from top ten SIs in July was 12.01 million, a MoM decline of 5.1%. These SIs are expected to see a MoM growth of 6~8% in August because of short term orders for the fourth quarter. Overall brands will also see a MoM growth of 6~9% in September while several brands, relying on consumption market, distribute products to the market.Overall monitors SIs’ shipment shows signs of decline, despite some short-term orders for Tatung and growth for TPV, Qisda, and Wistron at the expense of CMI. CMI was expected to take the lead in monitor manufacturing over TPV in 2009. As the gap between the shipment volumes of CMI and TPV widened in 4Q09 (37 million from CMI in comparison with 40 million from TPV), CMI production continued to decline because of merger and internal restructuring. CMI shipments are expected to be around 25 million this year, at the same level as that in 2007. In contrast, TPV continues to grow and is expected to produce 57 to 59 million this year.Concern over decline looms because of debt crisis in the US and Europe even though the peak season is approaching. Anita Wang, an analyst at WitsView, indicated upcoming challenges for brand vendors. This difficulty results from weak terminal market demand, unwillingness to place orders from the distributors’ side in fear of stocks piling up, and weak price support from the panel makers which had experienced consecutive decline through three quarters.Brand vendors could only hope to maintain production by reducing cost and selling off stocks; therefore, the shipments for the second half of the year will remain limited. Regardless of the scale of the upcoming shipment challenges, the brand shipment forecast for September and October suggests that battle over brand market share in Q4 is inevitable.Burrell Liu, assistant manager of WitsView, also indicated that LCD TV demand, which is the driving force for the entire industry, is forecasted to grow 10~12% in the third quarter, compared to the second, against the background of declining overall demand. While there appears to be seasonal growth, the actual growth is not of any significant positive influence for overall supply and demand. Monitor and TV display panel prices have been showing signs of decline since last month. It is predicted that average display panel makers’ utilization rate will continue to decrease to 60%. It is also expected that selling price will be stabilized and there will be a balance of supply and demand in Q4.

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